Strategy in TECH...
Famous New York Yankees catcher Yogi Berra once said, “Forecasting is very difficult, especially when it’s about the future.” Yet another wise saying from one of history’s most quoted sages. Even so, lately many regular Strata-gee readers (some of my favorite Strata-gists), have been asking me to do just exactly that – predict the future.
That is such a risky business…only a fool would take such a challenge.
CEDIA held their annual State of the Association report for members today and, as usual, it was a well produced, glitzy affair more bent on selling the organization to all who choose to watch and listen. The Master of Ceremonies was Giles Sutton – no surprise for anyone aware of some of the inside actions taking place at the highly political organization. Sutton is the interim co-CEO of the trade group. But is it a trade group? Or is it something else altogether?
A new poll shows that the latest flare-up of COVID-19 – which is generating infections, hospitalizations, and deaths at a rate that exceeds those of the worst of readings from this last Spring – are causing an outbreak of another type…anxiety and dread amongst consumers. This sobering data suggests that an increase in anxiety in consumers could result in stalling our economic recovery.
One of the questions I’m frequently asked is, “When will the economy bounce back to pre-COVID levels so we can all get back to normal?” The answer: We won’t “bounce back” to a pre-pandemic economy, and “normal” won’t be the same. The details on this answer is a topic for another post, but suffice it to say that one of the reasons is due to emerging, unforeseen variables, such as deteriorating employee mental wellbeing issues.
And THAT IS the topic of this post. Two new surveys provide troubling but important data that will impact how – or if – you re-centralize your team…if that’s your plan.
Best Buy Co. Inc. (NYSE: BBY) had what appeared to be a big win this week, generating financial results that handily beat its fiscal second quarter estimates, driven largely by a huge 242.2% increase in ecommerce sales. Their fiscal second quarter, the 13-week period that ended August 1, 2020 was big, coming in at $9.910 billion – even in a COVID-19 ravaged quarter – fully 4% higher than the $9.536 billion in the same quarter in 2019.
And yet, the company’s stock value DROPPED on the announcement of their quarterly results. And in after-hours trading, Best Buy stock lost as much as 5% of its value. Why did that happen?
Emerald Holding Inc. (NYSE:EEX) – formerly Emerald Expositions Events, Inc. – released their fiscal 2020 second quarter results this week and it’s no surprise that they were brutal, as the company continues to find itself caught in a COVID catastrophe that is killing in-person events, like the very expositions they produce. With the second quarter covering the period of April – June, the previous peak of the pandemic’s infections and deaths (since exceeded), the company performance – as expected – was really challenged, with the bulk of their various trade shows and in-person events cancelled or postponed.
But the company did have one piece of good news…the insurance companies providing event cancellation insurance to the company have begun paying against their claims.
A new survey from Ipsos/Axios had lots of interesting details about how Americans are feeling at this unique juncture in time, as states begin to reopen their economy, with a commensurate rise in cases of coronavirus. As many readers may know, this is an area…consumer sentiment…that I try to keep tabs on, as 70% of the U.S. economy is based on consumer sentiment.
And one piece of this research jumped off the page and grabbed me by my throat – 8 out of every 10 Americans worry about a second wave of the coronavirus (COVID-19).
On Tuesday, promoters of the Rocky Mountain Audio Fest – a well respected and popular event for the high-end specialty audio segment – announced that they were cancelling the show scheduled for October 2-4, 2020 in Aurora, CO. Like many other industry events this year, the reason was due to the disruption caused by the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic.
Saying they are putting “Health and Safety first,” IFA announces they have received the appropriate government approvals to hold a live, in-person trade show event in Berlin this coming September. The announcement was a dramatic departure from their previous announcement in April cancelling this very event. But will anyone choose to attend?
The race is on as marketers conduct myriad surveys to try and understand how the forced self-isolation resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic is affecting the consumer psyche now. Also, marketers want to determine if there will be any lingering effects in consumer sentiment – and perhaps more importantly, spending patterns – down the road, when life begins to return to some sort of normal again.
One thing marketers have discovered is that consumers are making judgments about your company and your brand, by looking at you through a COVID-19 lens – which, depending on your actions, could be either positive or negative.
