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T-Day+1: Tariffs…And So It Begins…

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STORY UPDATED 4/30/25 – See a Selection of Tariff Increases from Around the Industry

The reality is beginning to set in. Most industry manufacturers have updated their pricing with tariff-driven price increases…some as high as 50+%. Two weeks ago, on a day I call T-Day (for tariff day), the Trump Administration announced a new “reciprocal” tariff program on America’s top 100 trading partners that is bigger and more impactful than anything he ever toyed with during his first term. Even though most of that plan has been put on a 90-day hold (except for China), anywhere from 10%…to 10%+20% is now implemented. The impact of that is starting to hit economies around the world.

And the reality and impact of that is also beginning to hit individual businesses and consumers.

See more on the inflection point of the tariff program now beginning…

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China March Exports & Q1 GDP Blow Away Forecasts as Exporters Rush to Beat Tariffs

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Ship being loaded in China
[Image: Reuters]

According to the latest Chinese customs data, outbound shipments in March increased by 12.4% year-over-year (YoY) far exceeding all previous estimates. In addition to that, first quarter GDP lept 5.4% in China, a huge increase over recent historical moves. It appears that exporters are seeking to beat the newly aggressive U.S. tariff policy by front-loading their needs.

See more on China’s massive uptick in exports in March

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Consumer Sentiment Slides to Historically Low Levels

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The University of Michigan (U of M) has released a preliminary reading of its Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) for April and it shows a continuing and startling slide in consumer sentiment, dropping another double-digit percentage from last month’s reading. In fact, this preliminary reading for April is the second-lowest reading in consumer sentiment in the entire 73-year history of the survey!

Learn about this decline in consumer sentiment that exceeded expectations

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T-Day Has Arrived: US Imposes Escalated Tariffs on Trade Partners

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President Trump announcing escalated tariffs

Now What?

On Wednesday, the Trump Administration unveiled its long-anticipated tariff policy, the details of which showed tariff rates turned out to be much higher than expected and a rollout plan that turned out to be much faster than expected. Overseas markets dropped as investors feared the onset of a trade war was brewing. Thursday morning, U.S. markets followed the rest of the world and saw stock values collapse in the wake of the announcement.

What happened? And…now what??

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Consumer Confidence Crashes in March; Future Expectations Hit 12-Year Low

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The latest reading on the current mood of consumers – the Consumer Confidence Index produced by The Conference Board – dropped by 7.2 points in March to a reading of 92.9. This is the fourth consecutive month of decline. The Expectations Index, consumers’ expectations for conditions within the next six months, dropped a startling 9.6 points to 65.2…the lowest level in 12 years.

See more on this surprising read on consumer confidence

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More Red Flags as Sliding Consumer Sentiment & Spending Hit Economy

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Red flags are flying as economy is impacted
[Image: Red flags flying on Wall Street – Microsoft Co-Pilot]

More signs of a potential downturn in the economy are emerging almost every day now, causing red flag warnings to be popping up just about everywhere. The fact that there are multiple warning signs that come from different sources tends to reinforce the general thinking that the U.S. economy is quickly entering the danger zone.

See the red flags impacting the economy that have emerged since my last report

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Storm Clouds are Gathering Over the U.S. Economy as Tariffs Take Effect

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No doubt about it, for the last few weeks, storm clouds have been gathering as many are seeing a darkening outlook for the U.S. economy. In just the last few days, three key pieces of data – red flags, really – suggest we all need to be vigilant in tracking where the economy is headed. These three pieces of data include: 1) another consumer survey showing eroding confidence; 2) key retailers warning of slowing sales from tariff increases; and 3) a new Fed estimation that the GDP will contract -2.8% in the first quarter of 2025.

See more on the gathering economic storm clouds

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Another Sign of Rising Consumer Pessimism – the U of M Index of Consumer Sentiment

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Another sign of a deteriorating consumer outlook arrived last Friday in the form of the Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS), another highly respected data resource from the University of Michigan that is widely followed by economists, financial analysts, Wall Street, the Federal Reserve Board, government officials, the media, and more. Widely viewed as a reliable indicator of how consumers are feeling about their current circumstances, as well as their outlook for the future, and their expectations for inflation – it is a leading indicator of future economic direction.

The preliminary result of the ICS for February registered a significant drop in consumer sentiment. What is spooking consumers?

See more on the February Index of Consumer Sentiment decline…

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Consumer Confidence Drops in January as Consumers Turn Pessimistic

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The Consumer Confidence Index (CCI), one of two major indexes tracking consumer sentiment on the U.S. economy, dropped in January, following what appeared to be a turning point to the negative side in late December. The CCI, a monthly survey of consumers conducted by The Conference Board and widely followed by economists as a reliable gauge that probes consumers’ thoughts on the economy – both in a rating of their present conditions…and in their rating of the near-term future prospects.

What does this unexpected decline mean for the economy?

See more on this drop in the Consumer Confidence Index

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On Eve of CES 2025, CTA Projects Tech Industry Sales of $537 Billion

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CES slide showing its powered by the CTA

Warns of the Negative Impact of Trump Tariffs

This past Sunday, on the eve of this week’s launch of the Consumer Electronics Show (CES) 2025, the Consumer Technology Association (CTA) released updated projections for total Tech industry sales in the year, as is its custom. According to the trade association, total Tech industry sales are expected to reach $537 billion – the highest level in history.

Read more on CTA projections for total Tech sales in 2025

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