Strategy in TECH...
In new economic data released by the government today, the real gross domestic product (GDP) for the second quarter of 2020 declined an astonishing 32.9%, the worst ever such reading in recorded history. This result follows a decline of 5% in the first quarter and demarks a deep and painful recession resulting from the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic engulfing the United States, and the world.
Two new economic reports from June covering the housing industry show promising results, with both residential construction (otherwise known as housing starts), and sales of newly constructed homes taking a nice bounce in June. This was welcome news after dramatic declines hit the housing market in early Spring.
But will it hold?
Last month, Strata-gee reported on a shocking 30+% drop in residential housing construction, with starts dropping an eye-popping 30.2% in April. That was ultimately revised to a decline of “only” 26.4%…still a massive one month decline. Now in May, we see starts attempting to rebound from those unprecedented drops.
I would hope that by now long time Strata-gee readers had already anticipated this day, and now it’s official that this day has come – the U.S. economy is in a recession. It really shouldn’t surprise anyone. However, I know that there are some I’ve spoken with who were expecting a “rubber ball” rebound where – almost magically – everything, including business levels, would bounce back to normal quickly. This seemed to be based more on wishful thinking, or just general optimism, rather than anything factually based.
I suspect some of those folks might be a little surprised to learn that the economy is sliding into recession.
Now completed, Strata-gee’s COVID-19 Impact on Tech II Survey is a follow-up study to Strata-gee’s original survey, COVID-19 Impact on Tech. If you haven’t read those original results yet, I would suggest you start there by clicking on this link as it will add context to the follow-up survey discussed here. And this time we learn that things have definitely changed in just five short weeks. In a nutshell, survey respondents report that the impact of COVID-19 this time around is much greater than in March.
You knew it was coming, but we just couldn’t see it until statistical data caught up with the rapidly changing U.S. economy. But now, we are getting a snapshot of these changes and they are breathtaking…and a little scary. Hold on tight…it’s going to get worse before it gets better.
The Coronavirus pandemic has hit America big time. With a head-spinning swiftness, the epidemic swept across the country with ruthless efficiency – first impacting densely populated urban areas (NYC, LA, Chicago), then spreading its tentacles throughout more sparsely populated regions of the country. It has extracted a devastating human toll, striking fear in the hearts of consumers, and brought a once bustling economy to a screeching halt…plunging it into recession.
We have never seen anything quite like this and for business owners and managers…we are truly in uncharted territory. With almost 85% of all Americans now subject to some form of Shelter-In-Place or Stay-At-Home order, everything except essential services, such as grocery stores and pharmacies, has been closed down – and most companies have seen their sales disappear. Will a fearful consumer complicate our recovery from this recession?
An astonishing 283 million Americans are stuck in some form of self-isolation or self-quarantine due to the fact that most states and cities have imposed a “Stay-at-Home” rule in the fight to snuff out the COVID-19 pandemic. This new reality in which we find ourselves means that almost all businesses (except for a few essential services) are closed – and millions of Americans are stuck at home with little or nothing to do. But what role does their technology play in this situation?
We are now beginning to see a rapid deterioration in economic data in the wake of the impact of the Coronavirus COVID-19 epidemic sweeping the country. Stunning new numbers are dropping at a rate never seen before and suggest we may yet have a long road to recovery. Unemployment claims skyrocketed to 6.6 million new jobless claims at the end of the month, and mortgage applications plunged 24% in March year-over-year.
New research conducted this month shows another major impact of COVID-19 Coronavirus – the crash of consumer sentiment. A statistically significant survey of a representative sample of all Americans has reached concerning conclusions about consumer sentiment now and likely to prevail for months after the COVID-19 crisis passes.
