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Inflation Drops Big in June; But Don’t Pop the Champagne Cork Just Yet

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Chart shows categories that contribute to inflation

Chalk this up to good economic news! Yesterday, the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading for the year through June shows that inflation continues to moderate, coming in at a reading of just 3% growth. That is well off the reading of 4% through May and much better than economists had anticipated.

But it is not yet time to open the champagne just yet, as we are likely to have another interest rate increase from the Federal Reserve Board (the Fed) later this month, and perhaps yet another one before the end of 2023 as they try to manhandle inflation down to their 2% target rate.

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May Inflation Rate Raises Hope for ‘Soft Landing’; Fed Keeps Current Interest Rate

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On the face of it, the inflation numbers for May seemed quite positive and an apparent validation of the Federal Reserve Board’s efforts to glide the economy into a “soft landing.” But the overall number, a 4% increase in the broader-based Consumer Price Index turned out to be a bit of an illusion, causing the Fed to leave interest rates at the current level, but forecast two more interest rate increases in 2023.

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Consumer Confidence in March Turns Up ‘Slightly’; Spending Plans Revealed

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In the latest data on consumer confidence, The Conference Board reports a positive, if only “slightly” so (their words), uptick in consumer confidence readings in March as compared to the sentiment in February. The organization’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI), a widely followed read on how consumers are feeling about both existing and upcoming business conditions, is an important indicator of potential economic activity.

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Sales of Luxury Homes Collapse -45% to Second Lowest Level Ever Recorded

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photo of a luxury home

Realtors Say Economic Uncertainty Has Frozen Buyers/Sellers

According to the latest data from national realtor Redfin, sales of luxury homes in the U.S. have declined a record -44.6% for the three-month period ending January 3, 2023, on a year-over-year (YoY) basis. That result outpaced the decline in sales of non-luxury homes of -37.5%.

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Single-Family Starts in Nov Hit 2-1/2 Year Low

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single-family housing starts declined

Residential construction of new homes – known as housing starts – continues to register monthly declines as a combination of still-high home prices along with rapidly rising mortgage rates results in collapsing home affordability. While economists continue to debate if and when the U.S. economy enters a recession – it’s clear that housing overall, and the home building segment specifically – is already there.

See the latest data on single-family starts…

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September Housing Starts Continue to Drop

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Housing starts drop in September

The latest data released by the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development jointly show that housing starts – a measure of residential construction activity – continue its downward spiral, dropping in September to a rate of 1.4 million units, below economists’ forecast. Single-family housing starts hit their lowest level in more than two years as a slowing economy and sky-high mortgage rates depress demand for housing.

See the latest housing market data…

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Consumers Say Health & Wellness is a Priority; Market to Hit $1 Trillion by 2025

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Consumers have a new passion for Health & Wellness

Even though consumers report rising financial insecurity as inflation rages on, the Fed keeps raising interest rates, and the economy begins to slow, they say they intend to continue to prioritize spending on health and wellness – a new priority since the onslaught of COVID-19 – according to new research from Accenture. This is potentially good news as more in the custom integration industry look to offer various residential health and wellness solutions as part of a whole-home residential or commercial installation.

See why consumers say health & wellness is a priority

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July Sales of New Single-Family Homes Hit 6-1/2 Year Low; Prices Increase

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sales of new single-family homes photo

The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development jointly released the latest housing data this week showing that sales of new single-family homes in July hit their lowest level in 6½ years. While unit sales declined, both median and average prices continued to increase, making future home sales even more unaffordable.

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July Housing Starts Hit Lowest Level Since February 2021

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housing starts measure new homes like this one being built

In the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, we learn that overall housing starts have hit their lowest level since February 2021 as climbing mortgage rates combined with still-high housing prices have made homes unaffordable for many Americans. The same report also notes that building permits have declined as well, suggesting housing will remain in decline for some time to come.

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Index of Consumer Sentiment Bumps Up as Inflation Declines

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This past Friday, the University of Michigan released a preliminary reading of its Index of Consumer Sentiment for the month of August. This survey, one of the more widely followed readings by economists on how consumers are feeling, showed a small but meaningful jump as consumers are feeling a little better about the future. However, the overall results were a bit mixed.

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