On the face of it, the inflation numbers for May seemed quite positive and an apparent validation of the Federal Reserve Board’s efforts to glide the economy into a “soft landing.” But the overall number, a 4% increase in the broader-based Consumer Price Index turned out to be a bit of an illusion, causing the Fed to leave interest rates at the current level, but forecast two more interest rate increases in 2023.
I would hope that by now long time Strata-gee readers had already anticipated this day, and now it’s official that this day has come – the U.S. economy is in a recession. It really shouldn’t surprise anyone. However, I know that there are some I’ve spoken with who were expecting a “rubber ball” rebound where – almost magically – everything, including business levels, would bounce back to normal quickly. This seemed to be based more on wishful thinking, or just general optimism, rather than anything factually based.
I suspect some of those folks might be a little surprised to learn that the economy is sliding into recession.