Strategy in TECH...
In yet another sign that the increasing momentum down the path to economic recovery will still be a very bumpy journey, residential housing construction starts (housing starts) in April showed declines in both the overall reading for all types of homes as well as for single-family homes. While both showed double digit declines in the initial report for April, they are both still well over the readings experienced in April 2020, at the height of the rollout of the COVID-19 pandemic.
On Tuesday, the U.S. Department of Commerce released their latest report on residential construction for the month of September 2020. Like last month, the results on housing starts were mixed, with both good news for custom integrators and bad news for the overall industry – suggesting again that housing growth, while robust, is beginning to moderate.
It has been quite the roller coaster ride for housing – first dropping a COVID-driven, eye-popping 30.2% in April to just a 934,000 unit seasonally adjusted annual rate. Then gradually rebounding in May and June…leading to a record 22.6% increase in July.
Now we see a bit of a pause in August, with overall housing starts declining 5.1% to a rate of 1,416,000 units, down from the revised rate of 1,492,000 in July.
You knew it was coming, but we just couldn’t see it until statistical data caught up with the rapidly changing U.S. economy. But now, we are getting a snapshot of these changes and they are breathtaking…and a little scary. Hold on tight…it’s going to get worse before it gets better.
We are now beginning to see a rapid deterioration in economic data in the wake of the impact of the Coronavirus COVID-19 epidemic sweeping the country. Stunning new numbers are dropping at a rate never seen before and suggest we may yet have a long road to recovery. Unemployment claims skyrocketed to 6.6 million new jobless claims at the end of the month, and mortgage applications plunged 24% in March year-over-year.
Last week, Strata-gee reported that housing construction starts jumped mightily in December 2019 – but now we learn in a new report from the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development that new home sales actually declined at the same time. Typically, analysts like to see both home sales and construction starts increase together as an indicator of a healthy economy.
As the economy continues to show more signs of a slowdown, we can’t help but notice increasing volatility in the month-to-month readings of various statistics. The latest government data on housing construction starts is a great example of this. After a big jump in August, starts dropped in September by 9.4% – a larger than normal amount – from the revised rate in August.
In the choppy waters of today’s current economy, we continue to get mixed signals – this time from the housing market. Last week, we learned that residential construction starts declined in June by 0.9% below the rate in May. This week, we find that sales of newly built homes in June increased by 7% as compared to sales in May.
The latest data from the Census Bureau shows that sales of new single-family housing in April dropped to a rate of 673,000 on a seasonally adjusted annual basis. This level is down a substantial 6.9% from the adjusted rate for March of 723,000 houses sold.
The U.S. Commerce Department released new data this week on housing starts for December 2018. Overall residential construction dropped to 1.08 million units on a seasonally adjusted annual rate or 11.2% lower than the November rate of 1.2 million units. This is the lowest rate of residential construction since September 2016.
