As I write this on Wednesday, December 19th the stock market has closed down 351.98 points or nearly 1.5% to its lowest level of the year, according to CNBC. The broader S&P 500 Index also closed at a 2018 low. But as bad as this news is, perhaps even more concerning are two key indicators for the housing market – single-family housing starts and homebuilder sentiment – both of which showed disappointing results.
housing starts
Japanese Startup to Disrupt U.S. Residential Construction Market
As you head home from work today, take a look around you at the other commuters on the road. All around you are Toyotas, Hondas, Nissans, Suburus and the like. These are all signs of the incredible success Japan has has penetrating the U.S. automobile market – taking significant market share away from the once dominant Big Three American auto makers, GM, Ford, and Dodge/Chrysler many years ago.
Can Japan do it again? Are builders D.R. Horton, Lennar, PulteGroup, K.B. Homes at risk of the same loss of market share? If Takeshi Homma (pictured here) is successful, he hopes to help Japanese companies take a big bite of the American homebuilding market.
See this bold plan to bring Japanese companies into American homebuilding… [Read more…] about Japanese Startup to Disrupt U.S. Residential Construction Market
House of Horrors: Sept. Housing Starts Drop 5.3%
I’ve been sounding the alarm about a housing slowdown for a couple of months now, starting with this overall look at how a housing industry-led recession could be just around the corner. Now, new data on housing, the industry that was a major driver of the last recession, continues to offer a bearish outlook with housing construction starts dropping a significant 5.3% in the month of September.
See more on the latest data from the Commerce Department on housing starts… [Read more…] about House of Horrors: Sept. Housing Starts Drop 5.3%
Are You Prepared for the Coming Recession?
Five Steps to Take Now to Protect Your Business
Occasionally, I’ll chat with an integrator or other industry colleague about that ugly shared nightmare experience, otherwise known as the recession of 2007-2009. This recession, unlike others in the past, zeroed in like a torpedo on the residential construction market and dramatically reshaped the custom integration industry. For those of you joining the industry since that time, you dodged the bullet…but you also missed the lessons that survivors were forced to learn in order to keep afloat.
Why you need to prepare now for the next recession… [Read more…] about Are You Prepared for the Coming Recession?
Housing Starts in 3-Month Slide
September housing starts, the government’s measure of new residential construction activity, showed an overall decline to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,127,000 units. This rate is down 4.7% from the revised August rate of 1,183,000 units. This is the third monthly decline in a row indicating a softening in the construction of new homes – and the lowest level of construction since September 2016.
See more on this latest report on housing starts… [Read more…] about Housing Starts in 3-Month Slide
Good Economic Sign: November Housing Starts Shoot Up
In a result that exceeded economists’ estimates, November overall housing starts jumped an impressive 10.5% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.173 million units. Well over the revised October rate of 1.062 million units, it also exceeded the 1.007 million units in November last year by 16.5%.
More importantly for our industry, single-family home construction rates jumped as well.
See more on this encouraging economic data… [Read more…] about Good Economic Sign: November Housing Starts Shoot Up
Economists Predict Rapid Ramp-Up in Residential Construction
We were fortunate enough to receive an invitation from the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) allowing us to participate in their annual Fall Construction Forecast presentation, a webinar put on for the benefit of their members last week. Boy! Are we glad we attended! Not only did the organization offer up a roster of world-class economists with really interesting insight into what’s going on in the economy – they also offered reams of really valuable data delineating the latest trends in construction.
Their predictions were – to put it mildly – shocking! Read below to find out why…
[Read more…] about Economists Predict Rapid Ramp-Up in Residential Construction
Builders Group Holds Mid-Year Construction Forecast Meeting; Economists Cautiously Optimistic
The Associated Builders and Contractors, Inc., (ABC) a builders trade association, held their third annual Mid-Year Construction Forecast presentation this week…inviting economists from three industry-related associations to present their outlook on the construction industry. This year, the invited economists included Kermit Baker (American Institute of Architects, AIA), David Crowe (National Association of Home Builders, NAHB), and their own Anirban Basu (ABC).
The economists this year were, overall, cautiously optimistic – with a heavy emphasis on caution.
See more on the presentations from the construction industry economists… [Read more…] about Builders Group Holds Mid-Year Construction Forecast Meeting; Economists Cautiously Optimistic
Startling Jump in November Housing Starts; Are Happy Days Here Again?
Newly released data from the Commerce Department shows that housing starts took what many are characterizing as a startling jump in November – rising 23% overall above the October rate and almost 30% above the November 2012 rate. Analysts are struggling to explain the gains other than to say these numbers show a durable housing recovery – welcome news considering the fact that the housing construction industry is a key driver of the overall economy.
The news is good…but is it a real recovery, or just an outlier?… [Read more…] about Startling Jump in November Housing Starts; Are Happy Days Here Again?
Residential Construction Rebound Getting More Convincing Based on December Data
The U.S. Census Bureau released residential construction data for the month of December and the results provide further – and perhaps more convincing – proof that the housing market is showing consistent signs of improvement. Some analysts even call this a housing rebound as overall residential construction starts increased to 954,000 units or 12.1% over the revised November rate of 851,000 units.
