Strategy in TECH...
The latest data from the Census Bureau shows that sales of new single-family housing in April dropped to a rate of 673,000 on a seasonally adjusted annual basis. This level is down a substantial 6.9% from the adjusted rate for March of 723,000 houses sold.
The latest data from the US Census Bureau shows a pretty nice increase in April residential housing construction starts – a key economic data for the custom integration industry. According to the report, overall housing starts came in at 1,235,000 units on a seasonally adjusted annual rate. This is 5.7% above the revised March rate of 1,168,000…and yet is it also down.
Two different economic reports on the residential housing market show conflicting results. One report is on the latest data in housing starts…the other contains the latest results on new home sales. But these reports paint two very different pictures. Is housing growing? Or rather, is it fading?
In the latest report on consumer confidence, The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index showed a significant drop in overall confidence in the month of March. The Conference Board characterized this drop as “unexpected.” Economists are taking note of this result as March is the first full month after the partial government shutdown in February, and many had expected a more favorable reading.
As regular Strata-gee readers know, I follow basic economic data for our readers. Not all economic data, just that data I feel are germane to the custom integration and consumer electronics industries. Normally, that is a fairly sane and sedate task – but lately, it has gotten a bit crazy, with wild up/down swings the likes of which I haven’t seen since the last great recession. Take housing starts, for example…
New data from the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development shows that sales of new single-family homes in December were a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 621,000 or 3.7% above the revised rate in November of 599,000. However, it remained 2.4% below the year-ago rate of sales in December 2017 of 636,000.
The U.S. Commerce Department released new data this week on housing starts for December 2018. Overall residential construction dropped to 1.08 million units on a seasonally adjusted annual rate or 11.2% lower than the November rate of 1.2 million units. This is the lowest rate of residential construction since September 2016.
A new survey by a business economics organization reveals that nearly 8 out of 10 economists (77%) say there will be a recession in the U.S. by 2021. A majority or 52% of them suggest that a recession will take place by the end of 2020. Yet even so, a majority of these economists anticipate that the Federal Reserve Board will continue to raise interest rates yet this year.
In a result that was not expected by most industry analysts, contract signings to purchase previously owned homes dropped in December for the third month in a row. The news is widely viewed as yet another indicator of a housing industry slowdown, along with declining affordability and rising housing and mortgage costs.
New data from multiple sources are increasing economists concerns of an economic downturn within the next two years – perhaps even later this year. The latest readings on consumer confidence/sentiment and existing home sales show sharp downturns, sparking new debates on the real health of the economy.
