Not long ago, I weighed in on whether I believed that the U.S. economy would “bounce back” after the impact of COVID-19 began to taper off. A vigorous debate had erupted at the time, with multiple market observers offering their opinions as to whether there would be a v-shaped, w-shaped, u-shaped (or another character) recovery. We all wanted a v-shaped recovery, which would mean that the economy would essentially snap back instantly to where it was before the pandemic.
I did not expect a v-shaped recovery because it seemed to me that reopening the economy would be less coordinated than when the entire country basically shut down at the beginning of the pandemic. The latest government data on U.S. job growth shows this to be the case.
