Strategy in TECH...
We are now beginning to see a rapid deterioration in economic data in the wake of the impact of the Coronavirus COVID-19 epidemic sweeping the country. Stunning new numbers are dropping at a rate never seen before and suggest we may yet have a long road to recovery. Unemployment claims skyrocketed to 6.6 million new jobless claims at the end of the month, and mortgage applications plunged 24% in March year-over-year.
New research conducted this month shows another major impact of COVID-19 Coronavirus – the crash of consumer sentiment. A statistically significant survey of a representative sample of all Americans has reached concerning conclusions about consumer sentiment now and likely to prevail for months after the COVID-19 crisis passes.
Most economists have come to the conclusion that a recession is imminent – if not already here – as the drive to stamp out the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) has businesses being shut down and employees sent home. Many of these employees are either being officially laid off, or effectively laid off if they are hourly workers. Unemployment claims have already jumped and based on estimates from people way smarter than me – are going to go way higher soon. So now what do we do?
Last week, Strata-gee reported that housing construction starts jumped mightily in December 2019 – but now we learn in a new report from the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development that new home sales actually declined at the same time. Typically, analysts like to see both home sales and construction starts increase together as an indicator of a healthy economy.
Like at the end of the Christmas movie, Miracle on 34th Street, it appears that Santa brought new homes for all the good little girls and boys at the end of last year. New government data on residential housing construction starts for December 2019 startled economists, jumping an unexpected 16.9% for the highest rate of construction in 13-years.
The Census Bureau, in cooperation with the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, released new home construction data for November, offering details on what is generally known as housing starts. The overall construction starts – which includes both single-family and multi-family homes – both showed increases over the revised numbers for October, suggesting a return to economic stability after a period of concern about a possible slowdown.
This week, National Public Radio (NPR) tells the story of the Minneapolis Speaker Company, Inc., known as MISCO, a St. Paul, MN-based manufacturer of speaker drivers and systems sold mostly on an OEM basis, who is struggling to continue to manufacture products here in the U.S. as they have for the last 70 years. What threatens their ability to continue to do so? In a word…tariffs.
The Conference Board, in conjunction with Nielsen, announced on Tuesday that consumer confidence, a widely watched economic indicator, fell in November for the fourth straight month in-a-row. Consumers, it seems, are concerned about the current business climate and employment outlook. Even so, the level remains historically high and should not provide too much of a damper on current holiday spending by consumers.
In new data from the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, the readings appear split with housing starts showing increases while new home sales declined. Housing, a prime component of the overall U.S. GDP has been in a bit of a swell over the last couple of months, driven largely by low interest rates stimulating demand for homes.
Tech Data, one of the largest technology distributors in the U.S. and globally, has been acquired by Apollo Global Management, a private equity powerhouse, in a deal valued at $5.4 billion. The deal announced today, is expected to close by mid-2020.
