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The Consumer Confidence Index surprised economists in January after experiencing a small uptick in December. According to The Conference Board, after a 5.1-point upward revision of December’s early reading, the index fell a surprising 9.7 points in January to a reading of 84.5 (1985=100). This is the most pessimistic that consumers have felt about the current situation and the near-term direction of the economy in 12 years!
Last week, business group The Conference Board released the results for its November Consumer Confidence Index, a survey to gauge how consumers are feeling about the current and near-term future economy. The group reported a significant decline of 6.8 points in consumer confidence, a result that tends to support a similar finding by the University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment, as I previously reported earlier in November.
In a new survey released today (Thursday), homeowners expressed pessimism and uncertainty about both the economy in general and the housing market specifically. They are also stressing over personal finances, with nearly half of all homeowners (49%) citing their personal finances as the greatest source of stress they face right now.
The University of Michigan (U of M) has released a preliminary reading of its Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) for April and it shows a continuing and startling slide in consumer sentiment, dropping another double-digit percentage from last month’s reading. In fact, this preliminary reading for April is the second-lowest reading in consumer sentiment in the entire 73-year history of the survey!
The latest reading on the current mood of consumers – the Consumer Confidence Index produced by The Conference Board – dropped by 7.2 points in March to a reading of 92.9. This is the fourth consecutive month of decline. The Expectations Index, consumers’ expectations for conditions within the next six months, dropped a startling 9.6 points to 65.2…the lowest level in 12 years.
No doubt about it, for the last few weeks, storm clouds have been gathering as many are seeing a darkening outlook for the U.S. economy. In just the last few days, three key pieces of data – red flags, really – suggest we all need to be vigilant in tracking where the economy is headed. These three pieces of data include: 1) another consumer survey showing eroding confidence; 2) key retailers warning of slowing sales from tariff increases; and 3) a new Fed estimation that the GDP will contract -2.8% in the first quarter of 2025.
The Consumer Confidence Index (CCI), one of two major indexes tracking consumer sentiment on the U.S. economy, dropped in January, following what appeared to be a turning point to the negative side in late December. The CCI, a monthly survey of consumers conducted by The Conference Board and widely followed by economists as a reliable gauge that probes consumers’ thoughts on the economy – both in a rating of their present conditions…and in their rating of the near-term future prospects.
What does this unexpected decline mean for the economy?
A key metric of the U.S. economy is consumer confidence – a reading of how confident consumers feel about the economy, both currently and in the near future. A confident consumer helps stimulate the economy by freely spending their money, as compared to an unconfident or insecure consumer who will instead pull back on spending to hold on to their money. Now, three major surveys that offer key readings on consumer sentiment in July show big gains in confidence – a bullish sign for the economy.
A new analysis that correlates consumer confidence by income level has produced a shocking red flag for any business that offers goods and services to the luxury customer – as do many custom integrators. Fire up your sensors and watch closely to see if clients in your market are subject to this alarming trend.
While there’s no question that the economy continues to expand, certain indicators are sending chills down economists’ spines – and the latest Consumer Confidence Index is one of those indicators. According to the latest data from The Conference Board (TCB), the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) declined in November in a sign that consumers’ attitudes about the economy are turning cold.
