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Thanks to the administration’s continued postponement of higher tariffs in international trade, consumer sentiment rebounded in a preliminary June reading. This is the first such improvement in six months as diminished tariff pressure resulted in a more positive consumer outlook.
However, the improved reading is still well below the reading in December 2024.
The University of Michigan (U of M) has released a preliminary reading of its Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) for April and it shows a continuing and startling slide in consumer sentiment, dropping another double-digit percentage from last month’s reading. In fact, this preliminary reading for April is the second-lowest reading in consumer sentiment in the entire 73-year history of the survey!
Another sign of a deteriorating consumer outlook arrived last Friday in the form of the Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS), another highly respected data resource from the University of Michigan that is widely followed by economists, financial analysts, Wall Street, the Federal Reserve Board, government officials, the media, and more. Widely viewed as a reliable indicator of how consumers are feeling about their current circumstances, as well as their outlook for the future, and their expectations for inflation – it is a leading indicator of future economic direction.
The preliminary result of the ICS for February registered a significant drop in consumer sentiment. What is spooking consumers?
NOTE: Scroll down for a brief update – The latest economic data showing lower inflation appears to be finally registering with consumers as the latest preliminary reading of the University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment jumped more than a massive 13% in just one month. This took the index to its highest reading in two-and-a-half years (since July 2021).
This past Friday, the University of Michigan released a preliminary reading of its Index of Consumer Sentiment for the month of August. This survey, one of the more widely followed readings by economists on how consumers are feeling, showed a small but meaningful jump as consumers are feeling a little better about the future. However, the overall results were a bit mixed.
Things are changing in the economy faster now, causing a dramatic uptick in economic anxiety. The fuse was lit last Friday when the latest government data showed that inflation increased to 8.6% in May compared to last year. The reading on inflation had been widely expected by most economists to drop a point or two from the 8.3% rate of inflation reported in April. The news sent Wall Street into a tailspin as traders interpreted the increase in inflation as a heightened risk of recession.
For three straight months now, consumer sentiment has declined as the world faces war in Europe, soaring global gas prices, price inflation on a wide range of consumer goods, and lingering supply chain issues. As measured by the widely followed University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment released earlier this month, the index is nearing its lowest level in 11-years.
In spite of the fact that the economy is continuing to grow as it powers away from the days of COVID shutdowns, a preliminary November reading of consumer sentiment shows a dramatic drop to a 10-year low, as consumers fret about growing inflation. While economists have long warned that transitory inflation would be a temporary part of our overall economic recovery, consumers are clearly concerned that this inflation may be hanging around for a while and it is already crimping their lifestyle.
