Merry Christmas & Happy Holidays 2025!

It’s the most wonderful time of the year, or so goes a popular Christmas song…a sentiment with which I tend to agree. It’s a season – in ambition, anyway – of peace on earth and goodwill toward all. After a long, hard year, it’s good to take time away from the hustle and bustle of work and relax and refocus on valued friends and precious family.

See more of my thoughts on Happy Holidays…

Every year offers its own set of challenges, and 2025 was a doozie. Most notably, in April the new Trump 2 administration launched an aggressive global trade war in an effort to recalibrate our trade and tariff gains. Whether that plan worked or failed is yet to be determined, but it caused great instability for U.S. importers trying to plan their business and disrupted supply channels, which many companies are still struggling to get under control.

While the U.S. economy has…once again…demonstrated great resilience to this disruption, it hasn’t been totally painless. The impact of tariffs has caused prices to increase, consumer confidence to collapse, and spending to struggle – at least in the lower and middle socio-economic segments. With rising prices and slowing growth, we dance dangerously close a nasty demon – stagflation.

Big Tech Bets Big on AI

Wall Street has done well, but this is largely due to Big Tech betting big, big bucks on AI. Artificial Intelligence is a technology that shows great promise as a productivity enhancer. As I’ve reported to Strat-gee readers, I’ve done extensive testing of the technology for writing and image enhancements. However, it is just not clear if the massive investment by Big Tech in the continued AI ecosystem build-out is going to generate a real return on the billions (and likely trillions) of dollars invested in making it happen.

I saw one report that showed that 50% of the growth in the S&P 500 in 2025 was directly attributed to AI-related investment from less than 10% of participants. If true, that is a dangerous level of market concentration. If AI were found to be a bubble, and that bubble pops, massive fortunes could be lost in a matter of days…if not hours.

Positive Movement Offset by Negative Movement

Economic progress hasn’t been without some positive milestones. But the problem with the economy is that it is a complex system of interconnected elements, such that positive movement in one element can be offset by negative movement in another. For example, it was reported that November job growth was “decent” according to the New York Times. But at the same time, unemployment rose to its highest level in four years – a result I’d call a little indecent.

In any event, let’s look forward to 2026 with cautious optimism. For now, I want to wish you a peaceful and relaxing holiday break, and wonderful holiday celebrations, no matter which version of holiday you celebrate.

There’s No Stopping Me Now!

And take it from someone who had a serious health scare this year – I suggest you hug your loved ones and tell them you love them! My family is probably getting sick of hearing this from me…but there’s no stopping me now!

Thank you all for your support in 2025! HAPPY HOLIDAYS!!

Ted